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Elon Musk's Martian fever dream is growing by leaps and bounds. October marked arguably the best performance by Musk's still-under-development Starship, when Flight Test 5 of the SpaceX Starship featured a successful mid-air capture of the returning Super Heavy booster by mechanical "chopsticks" on the rocket's launch-and-landing tower. One month later, Flight Test 6 saw a tower capture abort -- a disappointment -- but picture-perfect water landings by both Super Heavy and the rocket's Starship second stage, as well as a successful reignition of at least one Starship engine while in orbit ( which was another technical objective of the flight test ). Impressed by SpaceX's rapid advancements, no sooner were the results in than the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration cleared SpaceX to quintuple its Starship launch rate, from five launches per year to 25. But even 25 launches a year isn't good enough for SpaceX Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell. She wants 100. 25 launches in '25 Now SpaceX will of course happily accept the 25 launches that FAA is giving it in 2025. And Kathy Lueders, general manager of SpaceX's Texan "Starbase" spaceport, expects to max out that limit in 2025. But at a recent investment conference, Shotwell expressed the desire to go far beyond that limit in future years, predicting that SpaceX will launch 400 Starships over the next four years. And that's not all. Digesting all the public statements made by multiple SpaceX execs over the last few weeks, Payload Space recently assembled a report laying out a few of SpaceX's more shocking predictions for the next 10 years of spaceflight, and they hold some clear implications for investors in the space industry . So long, Falcon 9. We hardly knew ye. Perhaps the most shocking implication of Starship's progress is that SpaceX's popular Falcon 9 rocket might soon get priced out of the market. Falcon 9 launched 91 times in 2023, and has already beaten that record in 2024. With a full month to go this year, the world's most used rocket has already conducted 116 space launches. Granted, most of these launches were performed for SpaceX itself, deploying batches upon batches of Starlink satellites to orbit. But SpaceX also launched 36 Falcon missions for paying customers, making it easily the world's most popular commercial rocket. Key to the rocket's popularity is its bargain basement price -- less than $70 million per launch at advertised prices, which is cheaper than anything Arianespace or United Launch Alliance can offer. But as cheap as Falcon 9 may be, Starship will be even cheaper. Payload recently estimated the Starship's construction cost at $90 million (i.e., 28.5% more expensive than Falcon 9, but for 400% more payload capacity). And Musk has predicted that over time Starship's cost will fall to as little as $10 million per flight . Once SpaceX hits that target, there will be simply no reason to keep flying a Falcon 9 that costs more, but carries less. Shotwell predicts that within six to eight years, SpaceX will retire the Falcon 9 and Starship will replace it completely, both for cargo and crewed missions. Beware a price war in spaceflight That might be a logical decision for SpaceX, but it holds some dramatic, and perhaps devastating implications for companies that compete with SpaceX. First and foremost: Falcon 9 is already the cheapest way to put a pound of payload in orbit. Nothing Arianespace or ULA has can currently compete with it. If Starship ends up being so cheap that Falcon 9 can't compete with it , it stands to reason no one else will be able to compete with Starship, which will undercut all prices and dominate the global space launch industry. And here's a second implication: As noted above, Shotwell anticipates Starship launching 400 times over the next four years -- 100 times per year on average. With each Starship launch putting five times the payload of a Falcon 9 in orbit, that means that Starship alone will roughly 5x SpaceX's lift capacity (on top of any payloads Falcon 9 launches over the next six to eight years). The question naturally arises: Will there be enough companies wanting to put enough satellites in orbit to utilize all the capacity SpaceX is bringing to market? Because if global demand for space launch isn't enough to equal all the supply SpaceX is offering, then Economics 101 demands that the price of space launch should fall. In a market where Starship's launch price is already pushing prices lower, it may be awfully difficult for any other space company to earn a profit at the prices they'll be forced to offer. What does this mean for SpaceX? All of the above sounds like lousy news for companies forced to compete with SpaceX. For SpaceX itself, however, the news is only good. Observing that SpaceX is currently selling shares to raise cash at a $255 billion valuation, Shotwell quipped that with all the irons SpaceX has in the fire now (Starlink and Starship among them), she thinks the company's value will "add another zero, probably," valuing SpaceX stock at $2.5 trillion. It may take a few years to get there, but I agree this seems the general direction in which SpaceX is headed.None
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Jimmy Carter, the 39th US president, has died at 100 ATLANTA (AP) — Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter has died. He was 100 years old and had spent roughly 22 months in hospice care. The Georgia peanut farmer served one turbulent term in the White House before building a reputation as a global humanitarian and champion of democracy. He defeated President Gerald Ford in 1976 promising to restore trust in government but lost to Ronald Reagan four years later amid soaring inflation, gas station lines and the Iran hostage crisis. He and his wife Rosalynn then formed The Carter Center, and he earned a Nobel Peace Prize while making himself the most internationally engaged of former presidents. The Carter Center said he died peacefully Sunday afternoon in Plains, Georgia, surrounded by his family. Jimmy Carter: Many evolutions for a centenarian ‘citizen of the world’ PLAINS, Ga. (AP) — The 39th and longest-lived U.S. president, James Earl Carter Jr., died Sunday at the age of 100. His life ended where it began, in Plains, Georgia. He left and returned to the tiny town many times as he climbed to the nation’s highest office and lost it after four tumultuous years. Carter spent the next 40 years setting new standards for what a former president can do. Carter wrote nearly a decade ago that he found all the phases of his life challenging but also successful and enjoyable. The Democrat's principled but pragmatic approach defied American political labels, especially the idea that one-term presidents are failures. Jet crash disaster in South Korea marks another setback for Boeing WASHINGTON (AP) — A machinists strike. Another safety problem involving its troubled top-selling airliner. A plunging stock price. 2024 was already a dispiriting year for Boeing, the American aviation giant. But when one of the company’s jets crash-landed in South Korea on Sunday, killing all but two of the 181 people on board, it brought to a close an especially unfortunate year for Boeing. The cause of the crash remains under investigation, and aviation experts were quick to distinguish Sunday’s incident from the company’s earlier safety problems. Alan Price, an airline consultant, said it would be inappropriate to link the incident Sunday to two fatal crashes involving Boeing’s troubled 737 Max jetliner in 2018 and 2019. South Korean authorities seek warrant to detain impeached President Yoon in martial law probe SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korean law enforcement officials have requested a court warrant to detain impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol as they investigate whether his short-lived martial law decree this month amounted to rebellion. The Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials, which is leading a joint investigation with police and military authorities into the power grab that lasted only a few hours, confirmed it requested the warrant on Monday. Investigators plan to question Yoon on charges of abuse of authority and orchestrating a rebellion. Tornadoes in Texas and Mississippi kill 2 and injure 6 as severe weather system moves east HOUSTON (AP) — A strong storm system is threatening to whip up tornadoes in parts of the U.S. Southeast, a day after severe weather claimed at least two lives as twisters touched down in Texas and Mississippi. Strong storms moving eastward Sunday are expected to continue producing gusty, damaging winds, hail and tornadoes through Sunday. That is according to National Weather Service meteorologist Frank Pereira. So far, the line of severe weather has led to about 40 tornado reports from southeastern Texas to Alabama, Pereira said, but those reports remain unconfirmed until surveys of damage are completed. Israeli hospital says Netanyahu has undergone successful prostate surgery TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — An Israeli hospital says Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has undergone successful prostate surgery. Jerusalem’s Hadassah Medical Center said his prostate was removed late Sunday and that he was recovering. Netanyahu’s office had said Justice Minister Yariv Levin, a close ally, would serve as acting prime minister during the procedure. Doctors ordered the operation after detecting an infection last week. Netanyahu is expected to remain hospitalized for several days. With so much at stake, Netanyahu’s health in wartime is a concern for both Israelis and the wider world. Azerbaijan's president says crashed jetliner was shot down by Russia unintentionally Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev says the Azerbaijani airliner that crashed last week was shot down by Russia, albeit unintentionally. Aliyev told Azerbaijani state television on Sunday that the aircraft was hit by fire from the ground over Russia and rendered uncontrollable by electronic warfare. He accused Russia of trying to “hush up” the issue for several days. The crash on Wednesday killed 38 of 67 people on board. Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized to Aliyev on Saturday for what he called a “tragic incident” but stopped short of acknowledging Moscow’s responsibility. Croatia's incumbent president gains most votes for re-election, but not enough to avoid a runoff ZAGREB, Croatia (AP) — Croatia’s incumbent President Zoran Milanovic has swept most votes in the first round of a presidential election, but will have to face a runoff against a ruling party candidate to secure another five-year term. With 99% percent of the vote counted Sunday, Milanovic won 49% while his main challenger Dragan Primorac, a candidate of the ruling HDZ party, trailed far behind with 19%. Pre-election polls had predicted that the two would face off in the second round on Jan. 12, as none of the eight presidential election contenders were projected to get more than 50% of the vote. A fourth infant dies of the winter cold in Gaza as families share blankets in seaside tents DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip (AP) — A fourth infant has died of hypothermia in Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians displaced by nearly 15 months of war are huddled in tents along the rainy, windswept coast as winter arrives. The baby's father says the 20-day-old child was found with his head as “cold as ice” Sunday morning in their tent. The baby’s twin brother was moved to the intensive care unit of Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital. Their father says the twins were born one month premature and spent just a day in hospital, which like other Gaza health centers has been overwhelmed and only partially functions. Syria's de facto leader says it could take up to 4 years to hold elections BEIRUT (AP) — Syria’s de facto leader has said it could take up to four years to hold elections in Syria, and that he plans on dissolving his Islamist group that led the country’s insurgency at an anticipated national dialogue summit for the country. Ahmad al-Sharaa, who leads Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group leading the new authority in Syria, made the remarks in an interview Sunday. That's according to the Saudi television network Al-Arabiyya. It comes almost a month after a lightning insurgency led by HTS overthrew President Bashar Assad’s decades-long rule, ending the country’s uprising-turned civil war that started back in 2011.